A long time ago I had a course by Prof Jim Sandeful of Georgetown U and Dr Monica Neagoy on teaching with “discrete math” — very useful and interesting stuff that often does not get discussed in the standard American curriculum. I enjoyed it a lot.
Among other topics, I decided to write a little computer program that would model exponential random decay of radioactive elements. (Iirc I did this in Pascal and in BASIC, on the C-64, IBM-PC, Apple II, and Commodore Amiga. That was fun.)
One subtopic that came up, but which I never figured out how to model, was how to describe the frequency of some trait (eg red hair, striped tail, or growing a third eye…) in a population. I had long thought about how to do that but not until today did I begin to make some progress, so please allow me to share.
I’m going to make up a very-much simplified example using a Punnett square, something like this:
Upper-case B and lower-case b in this diagram stand for two different versions of a particular (but mostly imaginary) gene that controls whether a person has blue eyes or brown. In this hypothetica example, the upper-case B gene causes brown eyes and is dominant, where the lower-case “b” causes eyes to be blue and is recessive. Thanks to the magic of sexual reproduction, you get two copies of each gene, 1 from Mom and one from Dad, whether they stick around and raise you or not. (You have two similar-but-not-identical copies of each chromosome except for the X and Y chromosomes; your two versions of each gene are carries in corresponding locations on each of the two chromosomes. If I got this right.)
If you have brown eyes, then your genes might be BB or they might be Bb or bB (same thing). If you have blue eyes, then you have bb genes for sure — again, in this hypothetical scenario.
This Punnett square shows the probability of what will happe if two parents who carry Bb genes have sex and produce offspring. It reminds me very much of how we use an area model to show that (X + Y)*(X + Y) equals X^2 + 2*X*Y + Y^2.
In any case, each of those parents carries Bb genes, and when the eggs and the sperm cells are manufactured inside the parent’s ovaries and testes, one or the other version of the gene is put inside, but not both. And it’s random. So since each parent has a Bb gene, its probability of passing along upper case B (brown) is 1/2 or 50%, as is the probability of passing along lower case b (blue eyes).
You can now find the probability of all of the outcomes shown in the interior of the diagram. The upper left hand corner is BB, pure brown eyes, with probability 1/4 because 1/2*1/2=1/4 and also in this case all of the sections really do have equal areas.
The upper right hand and lower left hand corners represent the Bb cross; the child will have brown eyes. The probability of a Bb cross is 1/4 plus 1/4, or 1/2.
The lower right hand corner is the region representing the probability of pure bb offspring which have (recessive) blue eyes. The probability of bb is 1/4.
Now let us add a couple of features.
1. This is not just a single mom-dad pairing: this is a representation of an entire reproducing population where genes B and b are present, each 50% of the time.
2. Let us also pretend that the bb combination is fatal: not a single one of them survive to adulthood and to leave offspring. (This is a very extreme hypothetical example of how evolution operates. Normally Deleterious genes aren’t so uniformly fatal!) or alternatively, a breeder of plants or animals might decide to not permit any of the blue-eyed bb offspring to reproduce. Eugenicists used to advocate sterilizing anyone who exhibited harmful, recessive genes,in order to improve the remainder of the human race.
At first glance, You would think that this sort of genetic selection, either by artificial or natural means, would work very quickly, and that after just a few generations, the proportion of the population that was blue-eyed would vanish.
Jim Sandefur said no, it would take a really long time. I forgot the details, and just worked them out today. I’ll work out the details for you later when I have a larger screen. But:
Bottom line: even with this 100% culling of recessive genes, the proportion of blue eyes goes down as the harmonic series (1/X), where X is 4, then 5, 6, 7, 8, etc
So if the first generation has 1/4 (25%) blue eyes, and if every single individual with blue eyes is somehow prevented from reproducing, then the next generation will still carry the lower-case b gene 1/5 (20%) of the time.
And if children with blue eyes (bb) are still prevented from reproducing, the third generation will still pass on the lower-case b gene one-sixth, or 16.67% of the time, and the next generation will pass on the lower-case b gene one-seventh (14.29%) of the time. The next generation passes on b genes one-eighth (12.50%) of the time, then one-ninth of the time (11.11%), then one-tenth of the time (10.00%) and so on. At first the decrease is pretty rapid, but after that it slows to a craw, and the world would never be entirely free of the pure bb. After 100 generations, there still would be 1/103 (almost 1%) of the population carrying genes that can pass on blue eyes.
At 25-30 years for a human population to reproduce, you are talking about 2,500 to 3,000 years!
However, the fraction of the population that actually is born with blue eyes apparent to everybody will fall much faster. The proportions would be 1/4 in the initial generation, followed by 1/9, then 1/16, then 1/25, then 1/36, then 1/49, then 1/64, and so on, with the ratio being 1/X^2 (one over x-squared) rather than 1/x.
So, by 10 generations, under this hypothetical, 100%-effective sterilization or extermination regime, the proportion of the population with visible blue eyes would have fallen to 1/169, about six-tenths of a percent. However, the fraction of the population that still carries the genes for blue eyes would remain at 1/13 of the population, about 7.7% of the total.
However, perhaps conditions might flip-flop. In my hypothetical problem here, perhaps the conditions making blue eyes fatal would disappear after a number of generations. (Even if Hitler’s nasty 1000-year Reich would not have been enough to eradicate whatever enemy genes!) In fact, perhaps the reverse would be true: having brown eyes would be a fatal handicap under some conditions. Then the prevalence of blue eyes would rise to the fore in their place, but there would be an enormous die-off of all those who had brown eyes, which would mean the vast majority of the population. So all that would be left would be those formerly recessive genes, and the formerly dominant genes would be wiped out completely.
More realistically: recessive genes that make people susceptible to die from some particular disease or parasite or environmental factor do definitely get reduced in frequency over time, as I hope I have shown. However, they do not disappear completely for a very long, long time (if ever!) unless the entire population is reduced to just a handful of individuals, none of whom carry that gene, just by chance.
Evolution does work on those time scales. Human societies and any proposed eugenics program do not. Evolution has no direction, and is essentially blind, like a mathematical algorithm.
People often say that everything happens for a reason. Often, that reason is simply the laws of probability, which are extremely hard for most people to handle. Myself included.